Prema/FDA 2020 outcomes

This is a follow-up to Prema/FDA Venn diagram which summarizes the outcomes of 2020 season for the drivers listed there. The 2021 FDA status is not known at present.

Formula 2

Prema & FDA

  • Mick Schumacher: P1, moves up to F1
  • Robert Shwartzman: P4, stays in F2 with Prema

FDA only

  • Callum Ilott: P2
  • Marcus Armstrong: P13
  • Giuliano Alesi: P17

Formula 3

Prema

  • Oscar Piastri: P1, moves up to F2 with Prema
  • Logan Sargeant: P3
  • Frederik Vesti: P4

FDA

  • Enzo Fittipaldi: P15

Formula Regional

Prema & FDA

  • Gianluca Petecof: P1
  • Arthur Leclerc: P2, moves up to F3 with Prema

Prema

  • Oliver Rasmussen: P3
  • Jamie Chadwick: P9

Formula 4

Prema & FDA

  • Dino Beganovic: P3, moves up to FR with Prema

Prema

  • Gabriele Minì: P1
  • Gabriel Bortoleto: P5
  • Sebastian Montoya: P11

Moving up, 2020-21

Tracking the movement of drivers between the following categories: F1, F2, F3, FR (“regional”), and F4 (but not those coming into F4, of which there are too many).

F2 to F1

  1. Nikita Mazepin
  2. Mick Schumacher
  3. Yuki Tsunoda

F3 to F2

  1. Liam Lawson
  2. Oscar Piastri
  3. Lirim Zendeli

F4 to F3

  1. Jak Crawford
  2. Jonny Edgar

Skipping FR is a risky move, but it worked out spectacularly for some (Pourchaire in 2020).

FR to F3

  1. Ayumu Iwasa
  2. Arthur Leclerc

Iwasa appears here and below because he moves from F4 to F3 while contesting FR Asia in between.

F4 to FR

  1. Eduardo Barrichello
  2. Dino Beganovic
  3. Ayumu Iwasa
  4. Hunter Yeany

F2 with F1 scoring system

There are good reasons to have reverse grid races in Formula 2. There may also be good reasons to award 4 points for pole position, though I am not aware of them. Anyway, Formula 1 does not have either thing, and only awards 1 point for fastest lap (with a slight difference in rules, which I think is immaterial for the following).

Top five in the final standings 2020 Formula 2 season:

DriverPoints
Schumacher215
Ilott201
Tsunoda200
Shwartzman177
Mazepin164
F2 scoring

And here they are with the points awarded according to F1 logic: no reverse grid races, no pole position points, 1 point for fastest lap.

DriverF1 Points
Tsunoda142
Schumacher139
Ilott137
Mazepin117
Shwartzman116
F1 scoring

The drivers moving up to F1 rank 1, 2, 4 in F1 order instead of 1, 3, 5 in F2 order.

Super Licence points from F2/F3 in 2019-20

This is not an attempt to calculate exactly how many Super Licence points each driver has. Instead, the goal is to find how many points they earned in the last two seasons of FIA Formula 2 and Formula 3. The previous iteration (for 2018-19) is at Super Licence points, simplified.

DriverSumF2 ’20F2 ’19F3 ’20F2 ’19
Shwartzman603030
Ghiotto43340
Tsunoda42402
de Vries4040
Ilott4040
Latifi4040
Schumacher4040
Piastri3030
Sette Câmara3030
Armstrong2525
Pourchaire2525
Aitken2020
Daruvala2020
Mazepin2020
Sargeant2020
Zhou18108
Lundgaard1486
Delétraz1266
Matsushita1010
Vesti1010
Vips1010
Hughes844
Lawson88
Piquet88
Beckmann66
Drugovich44
King44
Hubert33
Pulcini33
Zendeli33
Verschoor22
Fewtrell11
Peroni11

Best weekends in Formula 2 and 3

In the 2017-20 format of Formula 2 weekend, a driver could score at most:

  • 4 for pole position
  • 25 for feature race win
  • 2 for fastest lap in feature race
  • 15 for sprint race win
  • 2 for fastest lap in sprint race

for the maximum possible total of 48. Nobody reached the maximum, and nobody will, since the weekend format will be different in 2021. The best total was 45 earned by Leclerc in Baku 2017: he scored all of the above except the sprint race result was P2, with 12 points instead of 15.

Tsunoda scored the second-best total of 43 in the very last weekend in this format, Sakhir 2020.

Three of these came in a season finale, perhaps with some extra career-related motivation

Formula 3 used a slightly different format in 2020 and 2019, with 10 positions reversed for sprint race in 2020. Placing the feature race winner at P10 instead of P8 naturally reduced the totals.

In 2019, the top F3 results were:

  • 39 points for Armstrong in Sochi (again, a season finale)
  • 37 for Shwartzman in Barcelona
  • 37 for Lundgaard in Budapest

In 2020, the top F3 result was 32, achieved three times: by Zendeli at Spa, and, surprisingly, both Piastri and Pourchaire did it over the same weekend in Budapest.

Championships: from most to least competitive

One way to measure the level of competition in a championship is to divide the points earned by the runner-up by the champion’s points. Expressed as a percentage, this quantity is between 0 and 100. Measured by it, ADAC Formula 4 was the most competitive championship in 2020, while Formula 1 was the least competitive.

SeriesChampionRunner-upPercentage
F4 GermanyEdgarCrawford99.3
F4 BritainBrowningO’Sullivan99.0
F3PiastriPourchaire98.2
FR EuropePetecofLeclerc95.5
F2SchumacherIlott93.5
F4 UAEPizziFluxá91.3
F3 BritainFrederickMaini89.8
Formula RenaultMartinsCollet87.4
FR AsiaAldersDoohan86.1
F4 USAYeanyBlanco80.0
F4 FranceIwasaSato76.0
F4 ItalyMinìPizzi73.2
F4 SpainHaverkortBoya71.0
FR AmericasLundqvistMalukas70.6
EuroformulaYeDunner67.2
F1HamiltonBottas64.3
Omitted: a few series I don’t bother reading about

Consider that FR Americas uses the same scoring system as F1, and its season also had 17 races. Lundqvist won 15 out of 17 (finishing P2 and P6 in the other two), and even that championship was closer than F1.

2020 season: 🐮🍮 update

The Mugello race did not change the 1-2 graph of F1, but some things changed in the finishing record, with Latifi’s DNF, Albon’s podium and Russell’s P11. Four drivers were classified in every race so far. With their (best-worst) positions, they are:

  • Hamilton (1-7)
  • Bottas (1-11)
  • Norris (3-13)
  • Albon (3-15)

Hamilton has the “best worst” result: P7. Grosjean is now the sole owner of “worst best” result: P12.

Formula 2

This is getting complicated.

Graph of 1-2 finishes

The F2 graph begins to resemble an organic molecule. One would not guess from it that Ilott is the championship leader: Ghiotto, Mazepin, Schumacher, and Shwartzman all have higher vertex degree. Of these, Ghiotto looks like the central character of F2 season, which he was not really.

Classified in every race so far: Delétraz (2-19), Daruvala (4-19), and Piquet (7-21). The best worst result is shared by Delétraz and Daruvala: P19. The worst best result is Samaia’s P14.

Formula 3

And just like that, the season is over…

F3 season

Pourchaire and Piastri have degree 5; Sargeant, Vesti, Hughes, and Lawson have degree 4. An extremely impressive performance by Pourchaire, considering he came to F3 straight from F4 which is rarely done nowadays (only Hauger and Staněk did the same, with far less spectacular results.)

Classified in every race: Pourchaire (1-26), Verschoor (2-27), Fittipaldi (4-26), Staněk (8-26). The best worst result (P26) is shared by Pourchaire, Fittipaldi, and Staněk. The worst best result is Deledda’s P20.

Peroni dominated intra-team qualifying battle, which was not a battle at all.

2020 season: Monza update

The wild F1 race created a small 1-2 component, which is very unikely to get connected to the rest of the graph.

Russell and Verstappen remain unbeaten by teammates in qualifying. Five drivers were classified in every race so far. With their (best-worst) positions, they are:

  • Hamilton (1-7)
  • Bottas (1-11)
  • Norris (3-13)
  • Albon (4-15)
  • Latifi (11-19)

This means that Hamilton has the “best worst” result: his worst result was 7th place. The “worst best” result is shared by Grosjean and Russell: their best result was 12th place finish.

Formula 2

Right after I exposed the two-party system in Formula 2, it was broken by Monza Feature Race, where Schumacher and Ghiotto were 1-2. This means F2 now has a connected 1-2 graph, in which the Schumacher-Ghiotto edge links two parts that were previously separate. It is a neat graph with relatively few loops, easy to draw on a plane.

The graph has a large diameter: Ticktum and Zhou are separated by 7 edges. It has two centers: Schumacher and Ghiotto share this role (every other vertex is within distance 4 of them).

Four drivers were classified in every race so far:

  • Delétraz (2-19)
  • Aitken (3-19)
  • Daruvala (4-19)
  • Piquet Jr. (7-21) 

Therefore, the best worst result (19th place) is shared by Aitken, Daruvala, and Delétraz. On the other hand, Samaia has the worst best result: 14th place.

Aitken and Ticktum remain unbeaten by their teammates in qualifying.

Formula 3

The F3 graph of 1-2 finishes is more loopy, which makes it harder to draw.

It is still a planar graph

Four drivers were classified in every race so far: 

  • Pourchaire (1-26)
  • Verschoor (2-27)
  • Fittipaldi (8-26)
  • Staněk (8-24)

Perhaps surprisingly, Staněk has the best worst result (24th). Less surprisingly, Deledda has the worst best result (20th).

Peroni remains unbeaten by his teammates in qualifying.

Two-party system of Formula 2

Two parties emerged in Formula 2 this season:

  • Ilott’s party: Ilott, Armstrong, Lundgaard, Ticktum, Ghiotto, Drugovich, Delétraz
  • Shwartzman’s party: Shwartzman, Schumacher, Tsunoda, Mazepin, Zhou, Matsushita

The two-party system works as follows: in each F2 race so far this season, one of two parties took both P1 and P2: the president and vice-president posts. The parties are evenly matched, in that each won 7 out of the 14 races held so far. However, the split is uneven in feature/sprint categories.

  • Ilott’s party won 2 feature races (Austria and 70th anniversary) and 5 sprint races (Austria, Styria, Hungary, Britain, and Spain).
  • Shwartzman’s party won 5 feature races (Styria, Hungary, Britain, Spain, and Belgium) and 2 sprint races (70th anniversary and Belgium)

Ilott’s party tends to win on pace, while Shwartzman’s party is stronger in strategy. There is also a geopolitical aspect to this division: Shwartzman’s party represents mostly Asia and Russia (with exception of Schumacher), Ilott’s party is mostly European and has no drivers from either Asia or Russia.

Party lines tend to cut across F2 teams. Just two teams entirely align themselves with one of two parties: ART is Ilott’s, and Prema is Shwartzman’s. Three teams are in the awkward position of having teammates of different affiliation: UNI, MP, and Hitech. In DAMS, Carlin, and Charouz one of two teammates is an independent, while Campos, HWA, and Trident stay out of politics entirely.

Ilott’s party has 7 members connected by 6 edges, each representing a 1-2 finish (Lundgaard/Ticktum got 1-2 twice)
Shwartzman’s party has 6 members connected by 7 edges, each representing a 1-2 finish.

While Ilott is an undisputed leader of his party, Shwartzman is facing serious threat of an internal coup: primarily from Tsunoda, but also from Schumacher and Mazepin.

2020 season as of 70th Anniversary

Formula 2

A major change on top of the standings table, with Shvartsman dropping from 1st to 3rd after scoring just 4 points in 4 races. But let’s look at the larger picture: what are the chances of Shvartsman driving in F1 in 2021? I don’t think there are any to speak of. The driver market is tight (Alonso coming back, Hulkenberg trying to come back, the number of seats does not increase…) and any F1 team would be right to be concerned about Shvartsman’s one-lap pace: so far, he qualified in positions 8, 6, 11, 18, 11 in F2. Winning F2 championship without having a F1 seat lined up is not a great career move: it rules out another season in F2 and none of other series would be a step forward in single-seater racing career.

So, Shvartsman’s target in the 2020 championship ought to be the 2nd place, not for the 1st. From the FDA pipeline perspective, it would be logical to promote Ilott, drop Alesi, and keep Armstrong, Schumacher, and Shvartsman for another year in F2.

Back to the graphs of 1-2 finishes. Unusually, there are two large components with 5 vertices each: Ilott’s component and Shwartsman’s component. The former has mostly European drivers (plus Armstrong), the latter has drivers from Russia and Asia (plus Schumacher). And the small Deletraz-Drugovich component remains isolated.

Combined 70th anniversaty podium (by total points earned):

  1. Ilott (33)
  2. Aitken (25)
  3. Tsunoda (23)

Most consistent in 2020 so far: Mazepin, finished in top 14 in every race. Since “top 14” does not sound that great, I’ll add he also scored in the last 7 races, the longest active scoring streak.

Unbeaten in intra-team qualifying competition: Aitken, Drugovich, Lundgaard, Ticktum.

Formula 3

Graph of 1-2 finishes. Both components expand but remain disjoint

Combined 70th anniversary podium (by total points earned):

  1. Sargeant (29)
  2. Lawson (23)
  3. Hughes (22)

Most consistent in 2020 so far: Beckmann, finished in top 10 in every race. In other words, the only driver who scored in every race so far.

Unbeaten in intra-team qualifying competition: Peroni. His teammates at Campos do not appear to threaten his qualifying record.

Bonus feeder series

Formula Regional Americas Championship has a very simple graph: Lundqvist won all 8 races held so far.

Go Linus!

Incidentally, here is Lundqvist showing off one of his eight FRAC trophies on Swedish TV.